Sowing of winter crops in Russia is facing severe challenges due to an intense drought, raising concerns over next year’s harvest.
Russia has experienced unprecedented drought this year, which will likely affect its wheat production to the point that it will be unable to export as much as it usually does. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter.
Earlier this week, SovEcon consultancy warned that the wheat sowing rate in Russia has dropped to an 11-year low, raising doubts about the 2025 grain harvest in the world's largest wheat-exporting country.
In Chicago, wheat prices surged to their highest level in nearly two weeks, before falling again due to demand concerns.
“We are closely monitoring the situation with winter crops,” said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, at an agricultural investors’ conference. “It seems extremely challenging and could potentially turn into a dramatic scenario.”
Rylko highlighted that the situation is particularly difficult in Russia’s fourth and sixth-largest grain-producing regions, Volgograd and Saratov.
Kirill Yershov, head of Evon Agro, which cultivates over 240,000 hectares in the Penza and Saratov regions, also warned that “issues will arise” with next year’s wheat harvest.
Russia and Ukraine both produce significantly more wheat than they need domestically and have been major wheat exporters.
Severe weather conditions have caused significant damage to several crops in Russia, including wheat. Vegetable and fruit production has also been badly affected.
In the Volga region, farmers have faced extreme difficulties with crop sowing, and Russia’s previously robust agricultural sector appears to be faltering. The effects of harsh weather are now clearly visible.
Russian agricultural analysts have warned that if immediate measures are not taken, poor winter sowing could severely impact agricultural production next year, particularly in the grain sector.
SovEcon consultancy noted that grain sowing in Russia is at its lowest level in 11 years. The same situation may continue into the next year. The reports of reduced grain production in Russia have driven up global grain prices.
Renowned Russian agricultural analyst Dmitry Rylko described the situation as deeply concerning in an interview with a British news agency, stating that many issues have suddenly surfaced.
Kirill Yershov of Evon Agro, managing 240,000 hectares in the Penza and Saratov regions, emphasized that the situation is very worrying, and wheat production next year may be severely affected.
“I can say that the situation is very delicate; everything is in dry soil. We’ve planted even fewer crops than last year. I know many others have planted less too,” Yershov said.
Alexander Prianshikov, from plant protection product manufacturer Shchelkovo Agrochem, noted that farmers in the Penza, Saratov, and Mordovia regions of the Volga area have reported an unusual rate of sowing.
“In all my years working with winter crops, I’ve never seen such a discouraging situation,” he said.
From spring frost to drought and heavy rains, extreme weather has impacted Russia’s key agricultural areas this year, hitting a sector that has been a success story despite Western sanctions in recent years.
Just as the southern and Volga river regions experienced severe drought in September, which is expected to persist for another two weeks, several grain-producing areas in Siberia declared a state of emergency due to heavy rains.
Russia harvested a record 158 million metric tons of grain in 2022, but last year’s harvest dropped to 148 million tons, and this year’s official forecast is for 132 million tons.
IKAR has revised its forecast for Russia’s wheat harvest this year, lowering it from 82.2 million tons to 81.8 million metric tons, and for grain from 125 million tons to 124.5 million tons.
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