Adobe bases its forecasts on an analysis of over one trillion visits to U.S. retail websites, covering 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories. Its analytics platform, used by the majority of the nation’s top 100 online retailers, gives it unparalleled insight into consumer shopping behavior and e-commerce trends.
According to the report, Cyber Monday is expected to remain the biggest shopping day of the year, with sales projected to climb 6.3% YoY to $14.2 billion. Black Friday is forecasted to grow even faster — up 8.3% to $11.7 billion — while Thanksgiving Day spending is expected to reach $6.4 billion, a 4.9% rise, as holiday deals and online sales begin earlier than ever.
One of the main drivers of this growth will be heavy discount demand, with average markdowns expected to reach 28% across product listings. Additional growth catalysts include mobile shopping, the use of AI-powered “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) services, and increased reliance on AI tools throughout the shopping process.
Most notably, Adobe anticipates an explosive rise in generative AI-assisted shopping, predicting AI-driven traffic to surge 520% YoY — peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows a staggering 1,300% increase in AI traffic seen on U.S. retail sites during 2024.
Survey data from 5,000 U.S. consumers shows that 53% plan to use AI tools to research products before purchasing. Additionally, 40% said they would use AI for recommendations, 36% for finding deals, and 30% for gift ideas. Adobe expects AI usage to be especially prevalent in categories such as toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.
Another major trend expected this year is the continued dominance of mobile devices over desktop for online spending, with mobile projected to account for a record 56.1% of e-commerce transactions. Last year, mobile made up 54.5% of transactions during the same period — up from 51.1% in 2023. Analysts say it’s unclear when mobile growth will plateau, especially with larger-screen smartphones making online shopping increasingly seamless.
The “Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) segment is also poised for significant growth, with BNPL purchases expected to hit $20.2 billion — an 11% YoY increase and nearly $2 billion more than the 2024 holiday season. Cyber Monday is expected to set a new BNPL record, with spending in this category projected to reach $1.04 billion, up 5% YoY.
Social media will also play a bigger role in driving online sales this season. Revenue generated from social media ads is projected to rise 51% year-over-year, a sharp jump from the 24% YoY growth recorded in 2024.
Finally, the top-grossing categories for total online spending are expected to include:
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Electronics: $57.5 billion (+4% YoY)
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Apparel: $47.6 billion (+4.4% YoY)
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Furniture: $31.1 billion (+6.5% YoY)
In short, Adobe’s data suggests that AI will transform the holiday shopping landscape in 2025, reshaping how consumers discover, research, and purchase products — and driving record-breaking e-commerce growth across the board.
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